The article presents the results of the development of a method for predicting trends in the development of random processes based on ordinal statistics, namely, the median and Hodges-Lehman statistics. The article discusses the proposed method in detail: it provides basic definitions, formulas for the calculation, a detailed description of the algorithm. The algorithm is implemented in the form of a software module that has practical application and can be used to solve problems of forecasting the trend of financial time series. The comparative results of applying the prediction method for the RTS index in the case of the use of the median and the Hodges-Lehmann statistics are given.

Keywords: ordinal statistics, random variable, random process, median, Hodges-Lehman statistics, forecasting, trend, mean square error, mean absolute error

The concept of “partial failure” used in practice is analyzed as a state in which the possibility of continuing the operation of a technical device remains. It is argued that partial failures are widespread in the operation of technology, but unlike full failures, under which the continuation of work becomes impossible in any mode, not fully understood. A number of reliability indicators are proposed that take into account the specifics of partial failures and the possibility of continuing work when they occur. Attention is drawn to the fact that the decision to continue the operation of the device in the presence of a partial failure is associated with risks. The essence of the risks lies in the possibility of receiving damage in the form of further deterioration of the technical condition of the partially failed device. However, in many cases such a risk may be justified. The task of deciding on the continuation of the operation, in the conditions of a partial failure is a complex task of system analysis. Its solution will require the use of complex models compiled using modern methods of mathematical descriptions and research.

Keywords: partial failure, reliability theory, reliability indicators with partial failure, risks of continued operation, making decisions on continuation of operation

A modification of the generalized algorithm for processing weakly formalized information is considered. It is assumed that in the processing of weakly formalized information it is important to consider external and internal factors. External factors are determined by the characteristics of the incoming information. Internal factors are determined by goals, objectives, methods, etc. The importance of taking into account the latter is that if goals are clear, tasks are set, methods for solving problems and achieving goals are known, then the volume of information being processed is significantly less and the speed of achieving goals is significantly greater. The increase in the speed of processing incoming information is achieved due to the fact that the information processing system adapts to the purpose of information processing. The dominant state of the information processing system is formed taking into account the goals of information processing and the characteristics of the incoming information (the dominant of A. A. Ukhtomsky). Thus, the processing of weakly formalized information from various technical systems allows, taking into account the dominant of A. A. Ukhtomsky, to take into account in the dynamics not only the external impact of the incoming information on the system processing information, but also the state of the information processing system. This system adjusts to the goals of information processing and taking into account the purpose of information processing and the characteristics of the incoming information, the dominant state of the information processing system (dominant) is formed. This allows you to reduce the processing time of incoming information due to the fact that the dominant formed means that the information processing system knows how to process information that has not yet arrived, but it is expected that it will soon go to the sensors of technical systems. In the process of processing the system of processing of weakly formalized information, the dominant may change over time. These changes may be due to changes in both the purpose of collecting the information and the characteristics of the incoming information. Such an approach, which takes into account the dominant of A. A. Ukhtomsky, allows processing large volumes of information in real time and can be used in the development of control systems.

Keywords: information processing, weakly formalized information, algorithm, dominant of A. A. Ukhtomsky, lack of information, control

Implementation of digital technologies in construction field demands a fundamental revision on the project documentation approach. First, is to re-orient the design approach by transition from two dimensional project documentation to object oriented multidimensional informational model. That leads to use of new technologies in construction production and in quality control of project documentation field. Based on previous conclusions, the problem of quality check of an information model, the check on compliance of the specifications and technical documentation of the state where construction is carried out, and on compliance to requirements of the client becomes number one priority. A general algorithm of information model verification of anthropogenic object is offered in the article. The typology of anthropogenic objects is offered. Approaches to form the lists of the compliance regulations on the specifications and technical documentation depending on type of anthropogenic object are defined. The problem of forming lists of the compliance regulations on the information model according to its stage of life cycle is separately considered. An approach to the future development of the tools to the complex analysis of information model based on the open IFC format is formulated.

Keywords: construction, cybernetics, information modeling, construction system, cybernetics of construction systems, Building information models, analysis, verification, BIM, anthropogenic object

Implementation of digital technologies in construction field demands a fundamental revision on the project documentation approach. First, is to re-orient the design approach by transition from two dimensional project documentation to object oriented multidimensional informational model. That leads to use of new technologies in construction production and in quality control of project documentation field. Based on previous conclusions, the problem of quality check of an information model, the check on compliance of the specifications and technical documentation of the state where construction is carried out, and on compliance to requirements of the client becomes number one priority. A general algorithm of information model verification of anthropogenic object is offered in the article. The typology of anthropogenic objects is offered. Approaches to form the lists of the compliance regulations on the specifications and technical documentation depending on type of anthropogenic object are defined. The problem of forming lists of the compliance regulations on the information model according to its stage of life cycle is separately considered. An approach to the future development of the tools to the complex analysis of information model based on the open IFC format is formulated.

Keywords: construction, cybernetics, information modeling, construction system, cybernetics of construction systems, Building information models, analysis, verification, BIM, anthropogenic object

The paper is devoted to the actual problem of ensuring the information security of web-sites. It discusses a method for detecting intentional threats to the confidentiality of information as a result of unauthorized access and is manifested in the form of atypical requests to resources by users. The paper proposes a method based on data mining. Its essence lies in the classification of users' behavior on the basis of information about their actions using an artificial neural network. As a basis for the implementation of the proposed tools, site security audit tools are used as a source of information. The structure of neural network, training methods and practical application are described, and the effectiveness of the proposed methods is evaluated.

Keywords: Data mining, artificial neural network, web-design, machine learning, classification

This article describes a software package to solve the problem of optimal placement of information resources-fragments of a distributed database on the nodes of a distributed economic information system by the criterion of the minimum average response time of the system to user requests. The software complex consists of software-implemented mathematical models of distributed systems of processing economic information on the basis of file-server, two-level client-server and three-level client-server architecture, as well as optimization algorithm. The developed software product also allows to make experiments for obtaining and subsequent analysis of the dependence of the reactivity of distributed systems on such integral characteristics as the dimension of the problem, the intensity of the formation of requests by users, the speed of message transmission through communication channels, the speed of reading, the speed of writing and processing in the nodes, which allows to implement a more rational organization of the computational process in the system. The software was implemented in C#, the NetFramework 4.6.1 platform, using the Microsoft Visual Studio 2017 Community development environment.

Keywords: economic information system, distributed information processing system, architecture "file-server", two-level architecture "client-server" three-level architecture "client-server", the global balance equation, a closed exponential queueing network

The article discusses the application of the theory of qualimetry and product quality management for the creation and operation of piggyback transportation in Russia. Their implementation requires a comprehensive study of technical, technological, organizational, investment and legislative issues. The specificity of the provision of this transport service by rail in the regulatory aspect is shown. A multilevel system of factors influencing the quality of the process of railway piggyback transportation has been formed and substantiated. The first level factors that have the most significant impact include: personnel, materials, equipment, technology, organization and the external environment. These factors characterize the actions of production personnel, material support, the state of technical means and mechanisms, the technologies used, the managerial component, as well as the external environment in which piggyback transportation is carried out. Structural grouping of factors is presented in Ishikawa diagram. Three characteristics of the process quality of piggyback transportation are highlighted - safety, timeliness and cost effectiveness. The use of factors allows you to create a range of quality indicators and methods for their evaluation, as well as to develop measures to improve the quality of transport.

Keywords: transport, piggyback, piggyback traffic, transport service, process quality, factor, Ishikawa diagram

The article is devoted to the conditions and tasks of the methodology of adaptation and preparation of information models of buildings and structures for subsequent implementation and effective application in the system of technical operation of the building. The following issues are addressed: analysis of the use of BIM-model at the operational stage; analysis of the difficulties encountered when using unprepared BIM-model in operation; synthesis of existing and development of alternative recommendations for filling the information model with data at each stage of design and construction for subsequent use in the operation service; the study of tools that help in the preparation of BIM-model; development of algorithms that optimize the preparation of an information model for the operation of an object.

Keywords: BIM-technologies, information modeling, construction, 3D-model, virtual copy, construction

The article deals with the parameters of communication modules of software products within the product life cycle management system. Classification of types of connections and coupling of elements is carried out. Parameters of instability of software products are introduced.

Keywords: life cycle, life cycle of a product, model of life cycle, innovative activity, system engineering

The physical process features at the point of contact of the electric rolling stock current collector and the contact wire in the system of traction power supply of DC Railways are considered. The choice of parameters of the combating icy frost formations on the wires of the contact network by melting ice method is justified

Keywords: physical process, an electric arc, melting of ice, the estimated coefficients, the choice

At present, there is a tendency in Russian society, which is connected with the fact that modern people strive, first of all, for self-realization. Very often, in the process of forming career strategies, a person thinks about whether he is happy in his position after having worked in an organization for over a year. Sometimes, such thoughts force a person to change the type of activity or completely change the place of work. Thus, such a pattern of behavior as downshifting can be formed, when a person radically changes the quality of his life, life priorities and value orientations. The author of the article, in connection with such a change in the model of career behavior, considers the reasons that can influence the reorientation of value orientations from material to spiritual.

Keywords: downshifting, career downshifting, success, values, profession, income, chronic fatigue, yuppie, freelancing, family, freedom

The construction and repair of the road network, taking into account the use of new materials, technology and, accordingly, technologies, raises the question of improving the management system of work methods and the targeted use of road construction machinery. The constructed algorithms for the constant monitoring and control of the execution of work on the objects are based on the methods of pattern and character recognition. This control system monitors and controls the movement of construction equipment and functional operations performed by the working bodies of road-building machines in real time. The search and selection of optimal solution algorithms, both managerial and production tasks, is based on solving problems in conditions of uncertain factor space and on the basis of economic justification. The main criterion for the advancement of production automation is economic feasibility.

Keywords: integrated mechanization and automation of road construction works, automated control systems, pattern recognition, 3D model, information systems, uncertainty, factor space, structural layers, road bed, auto grader, machine

to simplify the process of integration of the user into a new urban environment, it is optimal to use a web service that allows, on the basis of location, to determine the nearest points that are of any informational nature, or grouped lists of interconnected points that form routes. The web service corresponds to the REST (representative State Transfer) architectural style and is developed on the Java 8 programming language platform. OOAP (object-oriented analysis and design) was used as a design methodology.

Keywords: web service, web application, user, tourism, tourist route, attractions, coordinates, location

In this article, the evaluation of the effect of the trace elements on the reliability of the design of the combinational circuit in the field-programmable gate array (FPGA) basis is researched. An evaluation of the reliability of combinational circuits in the basis of three-input FPGA cells, as well as three-input FPGA cells, taking into account the trace elements, is given. Proposed methods for evaluate the reliability of the project at various stages of the development of fault-tolerance projects in the FPGA basis. The use of these methods allows the design of combinational circuits of increased reliability in the basis of reconfigurable integrated circuits without built-in reliability features.

Keywords: reliability, evaluation fault tolerance, combinational circuit, FPGA, fault injection

The problems of synthesis of a model of dynamic neuron with state memory (DNSM) are considered in the paper. The introduction of a special additional parameter into the model of a neuron, defined as a state parameter, is substantiated. It is indicated that the parameter of the state of the neuron has the ability to vary with time depending on the nature of the information processes that occur in neighboring neurons of the network. This parameter in a certain way accumulates information about the history of the behavior of the neuron in accordance with the entered formal descriptions. The concept of a "strained neuron" is introduced, taking into account the above. This concept characterizes the degree of influence of a given neuron on the neurons surrounding it. On the effects of time-varying parameters of the state of neurons, it is proposed to implement the process of self-evolution of the network directly during its operation. A variant of the analysis of the structure of the neural network, created on the basis of the proposed model DNSM. The topological representation of a neural network in the form of a graph model allows formalizing the interaction of neurons in a network with each other, both in time and in space. For this, the concept of k-space is introduced, which determines the degree of proximity of neurons to each other. The degree of proximity of neurons allows one to formalize, in the form of mathematical relationships, the procedure for the exchange of information between neighboring neurons in a network. Mathematical relationships that formalize these processes are given. A variant of the structure of the hardware design of DNSM, focused on implementation using FPGA technology, is proposed.

Keywords: dynamic neuron with state memory, connectionist model, self-evolutionary mechanism

The article deals with the problem of the minimax solving that are a typical problem for the theory of schedules. As a possible method for solving this problem, we consider a hybrid model, which is one of newest of genetic algorithms. A effency this model based on comprasion result accuracy, obtained by using two-point crossover, hybrid algorithm, simple and strong mutations.

Keywords: two-point crossover, hybrid algorithm, modified Goldberg model, mutation, minimax problem, scheduling theory, strong mutation, individual, generation

Two basic approaches to designing architectures used in the United States and the European Union are considered. The role of the architecture design stage in the development of projects for intelligent transport systems has been determined. Prospective development directions for design methods of architectures of this type have been identified

Keywords: Architecture, intelligent transport systems, subsystems, functional and physical architecture, services

The system analysis of types of damage of logging machines and their damage during operation is carried out. It is found that a significant impact on the machines reliability has mechanical energy and thermal energy. Mechanical energy affects all components and parts in the form of static and dynamic loads, which leads to the wear of mates, the emergence and development of fatigue cracks, plastic deformation or quasi-brittle fracture. The main attention is paid to the consideration of the influence of low temperatures in the operation of forest machines in winter on the properties of metals and, consequently, on the level of their reliability. It is recommended to use more widely such characteristic of materials as fracture toughness to assess the reliability of the design.

Keywords: Logging machine, reliability, damage, operating conditions, low temperature, fracture toughness

The construction of mathematical models of technical objects is most often associated with the mathematical processing of experimental data. Due to significant non-linearities, approximation of such dependencies using known methods (polynomial expansions, spline approximation, etc.) is, firstly, difficult, and, secondly, is associated with large errors. Studies have been conducted to create and substantiate an alternative to the existing “Cut-Glue” method of approximation (CGA).In the CGA problem, there are three subtasks: fragmentation, approximation, and multiplicatively additive processing of the results of the first two subtasks. The initial subtask is data fragmentation. It is a preparatory stage for the subsequent stages of the implementation of the Cut-Glue approximation method.The method of its solution is based on logical-combinatorial features and conditions for partitioning multidimensional data. It allows you to consider the maximum possible number of various solutions when searching for the best.The CGA method implements a fundamentally new approach and is designed to solve the problems of experimental description of nonlinear dependencies. To implement the CGA method, the software package ""Algorithmic structure and functionality of the"" CutGlueApproximation ""software complex was developed. The article describes the nature and capabilities of the functional implemented in software tool ST. ST can be used as part of the entire software package (SP) or independently to perform intermediate tasks in isolation from the entire complex. The connection between the parts is realized with the help of auxiliary libraries, which allow both to use input data and to present the resulting data in various forms, which makes the SP more flexible. A convenient user interface contains many variable parameters for flexible configuration and convenient structured information output at all stages. With the help of the developed ST, many demonstration experiments have been carried out.

Keywords: Approximation, optimization, mathematical model, combinatorics, heuristic algorithms, modeling, software complex, fragmentation

Predictive assessment of the technical object is based on the determination of the possible values of the controlled parameters in the projected time period and is carried out during the operation of the object. Calculations are usually done in the background and it is important to estimate the minimum sample of parameter values that can be used for prediction. The article shows the possibility of using the Hurst indicator to determine the persistence of the time series of the object parameter and presents a scheme for estimating the minimum sample size, which can be used to reliably predict the parameter change using time series forecasting methods.

Keywords: time series, Hurst exponent, forecast, estimate, trend, stability, persistence, value, parameter, object, data array

This study examines the dynamics of the perception of individual segments of the advocacy news. A probabilistic-stochastic approach for simulation is proposed. As the main actor describing the situation, the probability of a positive assessment of the veracity of the new information by a separate subject is taken. For the description of the process of forming the relation to it the discrete-event paradigm is chosen. The change in the level of evaluation occurs under the influence of random perturbations of the individual's opinion, experienced at discrete moments of time. An intuitive recalculation after this perception of the news is modeled based on Bayes ' theory of decision making. Mathematically, this approach fully coincides with the previously used by us in the numerical analysis of the resolution of intrapersonal conflicts. The results revealed at that time were adapted to study the dynamics of the perception of propaganda news by a neutral part of the population. Which is made by the individuals estimating truthfulness of propaganda activity as a whole neutrally, at the level of ½ (on a scale from 0 to +1). It is found that when assessing specific news such neutrality is violated, in the end, the individual believes the news is either completely true or false. But it is already being restored at the level of the ensemble of all news. About half of them are considered by the individual to be true, half – false. The time before the formation of the final perception of a particular news depends on the degree of its importance for the subject, and the minimum is observed at the level of significance slightly below the maximum. The model of taking into account the social environment in the resolution of intrapersonal conflicts has also been adapted for the analysis of the perception of propaganda information. While the assessments of the credibility of the individual stories of neighbors are correlated. Over time, clusters with the same perception are formed in society. Ideally, in the absence of other influences, eventually one opinion is formed in the whole study group. Here again, for some propaganda news, the neutrality of perception is broken, but it is restored at the level of the ensemble of all news. The proposed models can be used to study not only the neutral part of the population, but also groups with any level of assessment of the truthfulness of propaganda in General, both homogeneous and heterogeneous in this parameter. In addition, the proposed approach can serve as a basis for the study of the impact of agents of influence (in the information space) and the development of advocacy strategies.

Keywords: propaganda, perception, in General, separate news, modeling, probabilistic-stochastic approach, discrete-event approximation, Bayesian theory, multi-agent analysis, social environment, clustering

The article presents materials on the creation of Parking management AIS. The results of simulation modeling, which allowed to identify the "bottlenecks" of the project. Design diagrams have been corrected, processes have been included to optimize the operation of the Parking lot. The user interface is shown, the prospects of the system development are outlined.

Keywords: modeling, implementation,information system, IP design, Queuing system, diagram, Parking

The article deals with the results of the practical implementation of the method of milling deep grooves of the turbine rotor.

Keywords: Turning, milling, disk milling, deep grooves

The outlines of the composition of intelligent models for the assessment of complex risks, consisting of a ways of extracting and formalizing knowledge based on an ontological model, intelligent models for evaluating the process, structural and system aspects of risks are determined. A method of forming a composition of models for the assessment of complex risks, based on the decomposition of the problem of risk assessment into separate requirements, is proposed. The boundaries of the participation of subject matter specialists and / or risk management specialists in setting up, training, adapting and assembling both individual intellectual models and their composition as a whole are determined.

Keywords: intelligent models, risk management, intelligent model composition, ontological model