One of the key points of planning individual iterations in IT projects is the forecasting of the so-called focus factor. More specifically, it is the concentration of the workforce and the team's efforts to perform tasks. The purpose of this work was to clarify the previously obtained results on the choice of optimal methods of such prediction. This used another criterion for the quality of the forecast, not a mistake in planning the performance of the iteration, as before, and the inaccuracy of the prediction of the focus factor. The analysis carried out according to the new criterion fully confirms all the results obtained earlier. Among the considered mathematical methods of forecasting for planning in iterations of IT-projects the most suitable is extrapolation by moving average (both arithmetic and geometric) for the previous 1-4 periods. The error of the focus factor forecast for them is about 4.7%. Another aim of this work was the formalization of the intuitive methods of planning undertaken by specific teams of developers of projects. On this basis, within the framework of the theory of fuzzy sets with the use of linguistic variables, a heuristic forecasting model is developed. Numerical experiments on the basis of specific production data have shown for it a higher accuracy of the forecast than for extrapolation. The error was about 3% against 4.7%. The paper also presents a combined model using elements of both the heuristic approach and the above-mentioned extrapolation. It showed even higher accuracy of the forecast, with a mean square error of about 1.5%. The results obtained in this work, in our opinion, completely solve the problem of the optimal method of planning individual iterations in the implementation of IT projects.

Keywords: management, IT-project, iterative nature, iteration planning, forecast, focus factor, moving average, standard error, linguistic variables, fuzzy analysis, heuristic model

Classification of heuristic methods for finding new solutions is presented. The classification is based on the hierarchical relationship of heuristic methods, based on their practical use. According to the proposed classification, heuristic methods are divided into three groups: methodological, systematic and empirical.

Keywords: classification, heuristic method, invention, hierarchy, interconnection

The paper contains the results of investigation of effectiveness of application of various models oriented towards interval time series (ITS) to forecasting behavior of gas distribution networks (GDS) parameters involving the real data obtained during the process of their continuous control. The necessity of taking into account the factor of seasonality caused by periodic fluctuations in the level of the corresponding variable is justified. A comparative analysis of the properties of the special interval modification of the model based on exponential smoothing, neural network and hybrid prediction models in relation to the ITS with seasonality is performed, their merits and demerits are noted.

Keywords: interval-valued time series, exponential smoothing model, neural model, long short-term memory, hybrid model

The questions of mathematical interpretation of results of trajectory measurements are discussed in terms of increasing the accuracy of identification of bearings of unmanned aerial vehicles during their movement in a "swarm" - a group. Variants of identification of horizontal and spatial bearings are offered. For each of the variants, criteria are proposed for identifying the belonging of the measured values ​​to the same object in the group and the conditions for achieving them. The situation of false positives is shown. It is determined that additional identification measures are needed to eliminate false bearing triads and uncovered ambiguities, including the use of combinatorial exhaustive search algorithms. For their study, it is necessary to develop an experimental statistical model with an algorithmic description of cause-effect relationships, which is a further development of this work.

Keywords: " unmanned aerial vehicle, group of objects, bearing identification, horizontal bearing, spatial bearing, identification criteria, false notch"

The problems of studying the mathematical interpretation of the results of trajectory measurements in terms of increasing the accuracy of identification of bearings of unmanned aerial vehicles during their movement in the group "swarm" and "system" are discussed. The variants of identification of horizontal (IHP) and spatial bearings (PPI) are proposed both separately and in a complementary application. Identification of bearings of similar objects in the swarm type group is expedient to be carried out according to the IGP-IPP algorithm. However, it is only partly operational at distances of 3 km or more. As the main algorithm for identifying bearings of similar objects in the "Story" group, it is advisable to use IPP. Although these algorithms achieve high identification efficiency under favorable conditions, with tougher conditions, they drop rather sharply. Therefore, to maintain a high level of probability of "pure" identification, it is advisable to use additional measures to combat false triads. For the removal of problems, it is necessary to develop and apply combinatorial algorithms for exhaustive search, which is the direction for the development of further research.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicle, group of objects, bearing identification, horizontal bearing, spatial bearing, identification criteria, false notch

The constructions of directional microphones of the "linear" type and the test procedure are described. On a controlled lane of the highway, full-scale studies of microphones produced by the authors were carried out. Thus, the relative error in the measurement of microphones No. 1 and 2 was found, which was 12.1 and 13%, respectively. The minimum error is detected with a microphone of the "linear" type No. 1, whose slots are located on the sides on four sides

Keywords: transport stream, transport noise, passive acoustic detector, directional microphone

Programmatically implemented in MATLAB algorithm for calculating the intensity of the transport stream for the acoustic emission of cars based on the fixation of the amplitude value of the acoustic signal. The software allows you to change the threshold for fixing the amplitude value. For the approbation of the proposed software, field studies were carried out on the street-road network in Penza. Practical implementation of the software may require the introduction of an adaptive threshold, depending on the number of lanes of the road.

Keywords: noise, vehicle intensity, traffic flow, MATLAB, signal amplitude, acoustics, passive acoustic detector

In the article the algorithm of construction of an array of points, put in correspondence to points of a compartment of a surface is resulted. Calculation formulas for the coordinates of points are shown. The possible cases of the location of the corner points of the array are considered. And the conclusion is made that this algorithm will help in modeling acoustic, optical and other processes.

Keywords: array of points, surface area, algorithm for matching array points, geometric modeling, radix-vector

A comparison of different methods of segmentation of digital images of sputum stained by the method of Ziehl-Nielsen. We considered the following methods: threshold binarization, method binarization Otsu, detectors borders (operators Roberts, Sobel, Prewitt, Robinson and Kenny), detectors of Harris corners and FAST (Features from Accelerated Segment Test) algorithm, artificial neural network and wavelet transform Mexican Hat, as well as the search function of the contours of the OpenCV library. To analyze the quality of the image segmentation and time spent for carrying out segmentation. Concluded that the use of the wavelet transform Mexican Hat has the best quality segmentation with a relatively small time spent.

Keywords: the method of Ziehl-Nielsen, segmentation, digital imaging, detector angles, FAST, operator Kenny, the Sobel operator, Roberts operator, the operator Prewitt, operator Robinson, artificial neural networks, OpenCV

At present, more and more attention is being paid to the radiation safety of the population, in connection with this new devices are being modernized and modernized, to improve the state of protection of present and future generations of people from the harmful effects of ionizing radiation for their health. The article considers the key aspects in working with such equipment and suggests measures to reduce the risk of working with it, primarily for personnel, especially in emergency situations.

Keywords: Radiation, source, hot cell, radiation, safety, emergency situation, limitations, degree of radiation

The article suggests a technique for automatic segmentation of satellite images on the basis of convolutional neural networks into several classes, such as buildings, rivers, roads, etc. The software implementation of the proposed methodology took the second place in the competition for the segmentation of satellite imagery on the Kaggle platoform in competition: Dstl Satellite Imagery Feature Detection. The article describes how to prepare images for the training of neural network and reveal details for full dataflow and the principles of the traning. The structure of the neural network for segmentation is proposed. The network is built on the basis of UNET with additional BatchNormalization and Dropout layers, based on double convolution blocks. A procedure for cross-evaluation is described to assess the accuracy of the models obtained. The descriptions of algorithms for postprocessing and the technique of segmentation refinement are presented by using an ensemble of several models. A specialized model is proposed for finding objects of small size, such as "cars" and "motorcycles". An overview of other methods used to solve this problem is also given, which were not included in the final solution. In the experimental results it is shown that the efficiency of neural networks in this task is extremely high and it is possible to automatically prepare a layout of the terrain similar to the markup made by human. And thereby it allows to save money, since significant financial resources are being spent on manual marking.

Keywords: convolutional neural nets, sattelite imagery, image segmentation, machine learning, crossvalidation, Jaccard coefficient, UNET network, image classification, computer vision, contest results

the problem of subscriber set state estimation is devoted. The amount of geodata that are provided by subscriber sets leads to difficulties in their processing, transformation and analysis. A new conceptual model of the report on the dynamics of the status of the subscriber set is proposed, which is a part of the geoinformation monitoring complex “Spolokh”. The central link of the conceptual model is the geodata received from subscriber sets. The conceptual model is represented by IDEF0-diagrams, detailed to the first level. The substantiation of a choice of modeling system for diagrams construction is given.

Keywords: conceptual model, report, subscriber set, the report states dynamics model, IDEF0-diagram

This work is devoted to the automatic generation of verification sets of test procedures; the proposed and developed algorithm for selecting trial solutions for solving the problems of satisfiability of Boolean formulas.

Keywords: test sets, automatic generation, solver, Boolean constraints

The Bolshoy Tambukan Lake bowl is located in an area of extremely favorable hydrological and hydrogeological conditions. This location contributes to natural permanent feeding of water through the atmospheric channel directly to the lake surface and through surface and underground runoff. The absence of a significant increase of the amount of precipitation based on an analysis of their trend in the period from 1911 to 2000 at the weather station "Pyatigorsk" is shown for the first time. An analysis of the results obtained for more than 30 years of observation at the Tambukan weather station indicates a slight increase in atmospheric precipitation, while the level of water in the lake was rised dangerously. One of the main reasons why increase in the water level in the lake happened is unreasonable anthropogenic impact. The lake area afforestation, creation of artificial dams, shafts and ditches in some areas on the shore of the lake lead to accumulation of large volumes of water due to rainfall which then is discharged into the lake through surface and ground runoff.

Keywords: sulphide therapeutic mud, Bolshoy Tambukan, atmospheric precipitation, groundwater level, surface runoff, ground runoff

This paper researches a linear system with symmetric matrix A, positive semidefinite, and positive. Using Lyapunov Equation, determine if a system is stable. The obtained theoretical data are illustrated by example.  Also considered the uniform distribution of the 5 agents in the plane. In the equation there are external disturbances. Constructed Lyapunov function.

Keywords: positive matrix, linear systems, stability, Lyapunov Equation, attractive parallelepiped

This article discusses image transfer in JPEG2000 format using JPWL antinoise coding via noisy channel with occurrence of packet errors. The main problem is recovery of received image with minimum deviations from input original. The aim of this work is to study experimentally the capability of JPWL protection to maintain quality of received and decoded image depending on the level of packet loss in data transmission channel. The experimental procedure consists of simulation of multiple transfer of JPWL protected image with the size of 1024×768 pixels and packet loss with the coded image data. Variable parameters of the study are: JPEG2000 coding procedure (irreversible conversion), Reed–Solomon codes used for JPWL protection, per cent of packet loss. Regular variant of JPWL protection is considered as well as combination of regular variant with algorithm of in-frame interleaving. The final experimental results are PSNR similarity extent of received and decoded image and input image, average per cent of completely recovered tiles with respect to tile number in code stream. The article describes the software complex developed for these studies, which includes JPEG2000 coder and decoder, JPWL coder and decoder, means of code stream dividing into RTP packets, simulating means of packet loss, assembling of frames from RTP packets. Operation flowcharts of JPEG2000 coder and decoder are described. It is mentioned that under conditions of packet errors JPEG2000 decoder should be able to process partially damaged or absent tiles. In-frame interleaving of code stream is described aimed at improvement of its stability with regard to packet errors. Three hypotheses are formulated. Hypothesis 1: in the case of packet loss the regular JPWL extension is unable to maintain quality of received and decoded image. Hypothesis 2: in the case of packet loss the regular JPWL extension in combination with algorithm of in-frame interleaving maintains the quality of received and decoded image. Hypothesis 3: in the case of packet loss and with application of algorithm of in-frame interleaving the PSNR value of received and decoded image depends statistically on the number of tiles completely recovered by JPWL decoder. As a result of the experimental study, all the hypotheses were fully confirmed.

Keywords: JPEG 2000, JPWL, packet errors, noise-immune encoding, decoded image quality

The project for creation of the first in Russia Engineering Forum of scientific and technological activities, social and technological entrepreneurship “Rozmysly” is presented, this forum develops the principles of an open public interdisciplinary electronic environment. The substantiation of the social significance of the project is given. The new project implies involving an even wider range of practitioners, research engineers, young scientists, applicants, graduate students, students and even senior pupils in scientific engineering knowledge by providing them with the opportunity to publish, read and discuss the results of promising research and development works, engineering solutions, inventions and rationalization or innovative proposals in the form of an electronic preprint. Conceptually, the project represents a new culture of scientific publications based on global and mini Internet platforms. It is shown that the basic advantage is achieved through the implementation of an open access initiative. From the date of publication, the material is available for the widest possible range of readers. The project is a kind of an interdisciplinary scientific and technological engineering forum.

Keywords: site, Internet platform, engineering forum and storage, open access, preprint, foresight

In the article, the method of designing the path planning on the basis of an unstable mode is described. This method is based on the bionic approach and does not require mapping, it reduces requirements for the sensor subsystem. In this article, we propose a method of obstacle avoidance in which an unstable mode is realized in a separate dynamic link. The output of the dynamic link corrects the desired course of unmanned surface vehicle (USV). This allows to set the unstable trajectory of motion only at the planning level, and at the regulatory level to function in a stable mode. In addition, this approach allows you to plan the direction of detour travel. Detailed description of the proposed path planner, as well as the results of the research in Matlab are provided in the article.

Keywords: Control system, unstable mode, path planner, unmanned boat, obstacle avoidance

In the article application of the generalized algorithm of processing of the weakly formalized information to a problem of increase of productivity of work of programmers is considered. employees who spend a lot of time on the Internet. It is assumed that the employee of the company works on the Internet during the working day and works with various sites. Sites can, how to treat the work, and not have any relation to the company's activities. It is required to estimate the amount of time an employee spends on websites related to the work of the company and on other sites. The difficulty lies in the fact that there are not enough objective criteria for assessing sites, i.e. this information is weakly formalized. Therefore, it is proposed to apply a generalized algorithm for processing such information. The algorithm contains 14 steps. At the first step, information about the employee's exit into the Internet and connection to various sites is sent to the "Information Collection" module. In the second step, the information enters the "Information Recognition" module. In the third step, the information enters the "Information Classification" module, which refers to one of the types of sites. At the fourth step, in the modules "Convolution of information", information is processed according to a certain algorithm. Next, we evaluate the reliability of the information (step 5), assess the security of information (step 6), establish the links between the newly received information in each of the classes and the information obtained previously (step 7), estimate the probability with which you can trust the information received (step 8). At step 9, decision support is made in each of the classes, and in step 10, generalized support for decision-making. At step 11, a comparison of the recently adopted decision with previously adopted decisions is made, and at step 12 - the development of a stable reaction to the repeatedly received information and its memorization. At step 13, solutions are generated, and at the 14th stage, new information is generated and stored in the vault. Identifies the stereotype of the employee's behavior, i.e. how much time he spends on different types of sites, how reliable it is, how stable is his behavior, whether there is dependence on any kinds of sites, etc.

Keywords: weakly formalized information, information processing, algorithm, labor productivity, control

In this article, we briefly reviewed the problem of image quality loss. Methods for restoring defocused images are considered and analyzed. Describes lubrication functions and ways of defocusing the image, as well as a mechanism for eliminating the three main types of image blurring. A number of experiments were conducted on the defocused images. An algorithm for deconvolving an image using a Wiener filter and using the Tikhonov regularization method is disassembled. The analysis of the efficiency of the Wiener filter and Tikhonov regularization for blurred images is performed. The comparative analysis was carried out using the developed software for the restoration of defocused images in the Microsoft Visual Studio 2012 environment. For the Fourier transform, the library was used - aForge. A certain dependence of the execution time of the algorithm on the size of the image to be reconstructed. It is established that on the tested problems - the time complexity of the Wiener filter is 1.1 times less than the time complexity of Tikhonov regularization.

Keywords: Wiener filter, Wiener deconvolution, Tikhonov regularization, image reconstruction, blurred images, motion blur, Gaussian blur

The problems of young families are analyzed. The relevance of the study of the social welfare of modern young families is shown. A cognitive model of achievement and stabilization of the social welfare of a young family was constructed on the basis of the results of the study ""The Life of a Young Family in the Rostov Region"", 2017. It is shown that the basic model of achieving social well-being is a two-loop scheme with positive feedback. Each of the contours of which corresponds to the basic characteristics: socio-cultural and economic well-being. The principal problem of the factor of satisfaction of needs is revealed. The necessity of creating a full-fledged monitoring system of the socio-economic level of a young family included in the social policy framework of the state is shown.

Keywords: young family, social welfare, system characteristic, cognitive modeling, model, two-circuit scheme, feedback

The article analyzes the existing system of food quality proposed guidelines for improving the quality of the input raw materials on the basis of the made analysis the main factors affecting the quality of the products developed draft standard for incoming inspection of raw materials for food products

Keywords: quality, incoming inspection, holding, chart, histogram

Using a device of close homogeneous exponential queueing networks (QN) a mathematical model of an distributed information system functiouning for solving the problem of getting integral indexis on the basis of local computing network on the basis of three- level client server arhitecture. The base correlation for transitione matrix probabilities constraction and intensitiese of service at the network nodes are given.The peculiarity of the model being worked out is in making a selective choice of information at the database servers and via the channel of communication not the full data base is transmitted but some separate parts of it, which satisfy the conditions of SQL-request search.

Keywords: Distributed information system, distributed data base, local computing system, mass service network, conceptual model, exponential law of distributing the random value, stationary probability, mark process, the global balance equation, system reaction tim

The study of the method errors depending on the choice of numerical approximation of the linguistic variables used is proposed. It is obtained that the necessary condition for the absence of objective (independent from the opinions of experts) reasons for the inconsistency of paired comparison matrices is the closure of the numerical scale relative to the composition of estimates. . In particular, for the classical Analytic Hierarchy Process coming from the works of A. Saati, such a scale is not closed. When the criteria of one level of hierarchy are not the same in terms of priorities relative to the overlying goals (and this situation often happens), even one expert Advisor, in principle, cannot give a consistent matrix of paired ratings. What, in fact, is due to the great attention in the classical considered technology to the methods of estimating inconsistency of the matrix of paired comparisons and its minimization. As the number of experts increases, this effect increases. A closed evaluation scale can be obtained from successive degrees of one any number. For purposes of powers of a number is 1.5, although not ruled out another choice. Для таких шкал объективные причины возникновения несогласованности матицы парных сравнений отсутствуют, а субъективные, связанные с несогласованностью мнений эксперта, могут быть устранены в процессе формирования оценок. The proposed method is explained by a concrete example of the use of the hierarchy analysis method in the assessment of personnel risks in small non-commercial projects.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, expert evaluation, evaluation scale, matrix of paired comparisons, violation of transitivity, objective reasons for inconsistency, isolation relative to the composition, AT-projects, personnel risks

The paper deals with the investigation of exploitation technological efficiency of metall-cutting machine tools. The main goal of this study is to determine more advanced way of choice of equipment and to organize metall-cutting machine tools rational maintenance. Classification of basic and optional evaluative measures is presented in the first part of the paper. The research methodology provides the estimation of exploitation technological efficiency by calculation of the complex evaluative measure. The results of comparative estimation of two metall-cutting machine tools (Okuma LB 4000 EX, CTX Gamma 2000) are presented in the last part of the paper. According to evaluation result, Okuma LB 4000 EX stands at a higher level of exploitation technological efficiency.

Keywords: exploitation technological efficiency, comparative estimation, complex evaluative measure, methodology, data analysis