The work analyzes existing approaches to forecasting contract execution, including traditional statistical models and modern methods based on machine learning. A comparative analysis of various machine learning algorithms, such as logistic regression, decision trees, random forest and neural networks, was carried out to identify the most effective forecasting models.An extensive database of information on government contracts was used as initial data, including information about contractors, contract terms, deadlines and other significant factors. A prototype of an intelligent forecasting system was developed, testing was carried out on real data, as well as an assessment of the accuracy and reliability of the resulting forecasts. The results of the study show that the use of machine learning methods can significantly improve the quality of forecasting the execution of government contracts compared to traditional approaches

Keywords: intelligent system, mathematical modeling, government procurement, government contracts, software package, forecasting, machine learning

The article proposes the use of intelligent methods for predicting the reliability of contract execution as a key element of the system for ensuring information security of the critical infrastructure of financial sector organizations. Based on the analysis of historical data and the use of machine learning methods, a comprehensive model for assessing and predicting the risks of failure or poor performance of contracts by suppliers has been developed. It is shown how the use of predictive analytics can improve the efficiency of information security risk management, optimize planning and resource allocation, and make informed decisions when interacting with suppliers of critical services and equipment.

Keywords: intelligent system, predictive analytics, information security, critical infrastructure, financial sector, contract execution, machine learning