The article is devoted to research of thermofluctuation processes of insulating materials of power cable lines (SCR) of electric power systems. It was established that an artificial neural network (ANN) can be used to compile a forecast of the temperature regime of a current-carrying core with an accuracy of 2.5% of the actual value of the core temperature. The comparison of the predicted values ​​with the actual ones allows us to talk about the adequacy of the selected network model and its applicability in practice for reliable operation of the cable system of power supply to consumers. The development of an intelligent system for predicting the temperature of the core SCR contributes to the planning of the operating modes of the power grid in order to increase the reliability and energy efficiency of their interaction with the integrated power system.

Keywords: Neural networks, thermofluctuation processes, insulation materials, neural network architecture

The problematic issues of the state of isolation of power cable systems (PCL) are considered on the basis of development and development of non-destructive testing methods. The main components that destroy the PCL isolation are established. An analytical method for evaluating the processes of cellulose oxidation with the definition of the most probable is proposed. The calculations of thermodynamic processes of cellulose oxidation are given. Using the proposed approach to studying the basic processes of insulation failure allows us to provide more detailed information on the prerequisites for the development of partial discharges (PD) in isolation and to determine the necessary measures to minimize the processes leading to the destruction of the insulation of power cables

Keywords: Insulating material, thermodynamic processes, cable system, forecasting

The main problem is to determine the bandwidth of the power cable system (PCS) through monitoring of the thermalfluctuation processes cable. Investigated the temperature field in the cross section of the cable in accordance with the theory of heat conduction. The results of studying the thermal conductivity of the PCS. In Matlab, using the system equations Fourier transform in the cylindrical coordinate system is built, the temperature gradient in the cross section of the cable and the environment. On the basis of the thermalfluctuation theory to examine the process of destruction of insulation by thermal vibrations of the atoms, with the partial discharges (PD). The study of failure-free operation of the insulating material PCS. Determined the probability of occurrence of the CR in dependence on influencing factors (temperature, insulation, number and size of inclusions). The distribution of the probability of occurrence of the CR in dependence on a value of density inhomogeneities insulation (y) and the energy of rupture of chemical bonds (D).

Keywords: forecasting, aging of insulation, partial discharges, thermalfluctuation theory