This article focuses on solving the urgent task of forecasting hazardous mining zones by determining the position of local centers of tension in a processed coal seam. The relevance of this task is confirmed by the fact that the intensification of mining processes inevitably leads to an increase in the risk of hazardous production situations, such as rock blows, sudden coal and rock emissions, etc. The most dangerous for the manifestation of rock strikes are the protrusions of the edge sections of the coal seam, intersection and pairing workings. Shockproof activities regulated by the normative documents, are not always sufficiently effective. To solve this problem, authors propose an approach that allows you to quickly determine the position of local centers of tension, taking into account the influence of the worked out space. The authors developed an integration grid, in the construction of which the division of the entire area into elementary sections is performed in such a way that the influence of the weight of the roof rocks over each section is the same. To implement this approach, the influence function of the worked out space is introduced in the form of the equation of the reference rock pressure diagram. Based on the results of numerical simulation of the stress-strain state of the geomassiv, an exponential dependence is obtained, which allows one to determine the concentration coefficient of vertical stresses for points on the plot of reference rock pressure. According to the values of vertical stresses calculated for each point of the integration grid, it is possible to predict the stress-strain state of the geomassiv and justify the need for shockproof measures. The application of the proposed approach will allow the rapid forecasting of hazardous areas and significantly reduce the cost of shockproof measures.

Keywords: modeling, geomassive, coal seam, integration grid, forecasting, vertical stresses

For a numerical study of the stress-strain state of the edge sections of a coal vein under the influence of a mining zone, there is a mathematical model of the geomass deformation processes, which is reproduced in the form of boundary value problems of the theory of elasticity. The problem was solved by the finite element method in a variational formulation, in which the functional was minimized with full potential energy to determine displacements in narrow of elements. Computational experiments were carried out using the author's complex of programs. Based on the results of numerical modeling, recommendations for strengthening the coal target and definitely bearing capacity was developed. The use of the developed mathematical model and software package allows us to design documents at the development stage, to predict the stress-strain state of the geomass in the zone of influence of the underground mining system.

Keywords: Mathematical model, numerical modeling, computational experiment, software package