Algorithm for forming a strategy for automatic updating of artificial intelligence models in forecasting tasks in the electric power industry
Abstract
Algorithm for forming a strategy for automatic updating of artificial intelligence models in forecasting tasks in the electric power industry
Incoming article date: 03.05.2025Changes in external conditions, parameters of object functioning, relationships between system elements and system connections with the supersystem lead to a decrease in the accuracy of the artificial intelligence models results, which is called model degradation. Reducing the risk of model degradation is relevant for electric power engineering tasks, the peculiarity of which is multifactor dependencies in complex technical systems and the influence of meteorological parameters. Therefore, automatic updating of models over time is a necessary condition for building user confidence in forecasting systems in power engineering tasks and industry implementations of such systems. There are various methods used to prevent degradation, including an algorithm for detecting data drift, an algorithm for updating models, their retraining, additional training, and fine-tuning. This article presents the results of a study of drift types, their systematization and classification by various features. The solution options that developers need to make when creating intelligent forecasting systems to determine a strategy for updating forecast models are formalized, including update trigger criteria, model selection, hyperparameter optimization, and the choice of an update method and data set formation. An algorithm for forming a strategy for automatic updating of artificial intelligence models is proposed and practical recommendations are given for developers of models in problems of forecasting time series in the power industry, such as forecasting electricity consumption, forecasting the output of solar, wind and hydroelectric power plants.
Keywords: time series forecasting, artificial intelligence, machine learning, trusted AI system, model degradation, data drift, concept drift