Forecasting the number of employees in the Russian economy, taking into account the impact of the pension reform 2018
Abstract
Forecasting the number of employees in the Russian economy, taking into account the impact of the pension reform 2018
Incoming article date: 19.12.2018The article is devoted to the study of changes in the number of employed in the economy of the Russian Federation, which should occur as a result of the pension reform in 2018. As the dominant deterministic factor of forecasting the average variant of demographic forecast of the population of the Russian Federation till 2030 is used. The factors of influence are the levels of employment in the context of annual age and gender categories. The growth of the average age of the employed population in Russia and the oscillating "sawtooth" behavior of the labor outflow coefficient during the transition period of the reform from 2019 to 2028 are shown. At the time of the reform, the annual need of the economy for personnel will significantly decrease, which will cause difficulties in finding work for the bulk of job seekers – graduates of the vocational education system, who enter the labor market every year.
Keywords: number of employees, economy, retirement age, pension reform, labor market, demography, natural-age retirement, forecasting